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Harmonic Structure Home  |  The Modified Structure  |  Extended Waves  |  Failed Fifths  |  Alternation  |  Wave B  |  Fibo and Harmonics

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT R.N. ELLIOTT MISJUDGED THE IMPULSIVE WAVE STRUCTURE

I do not wish to imply that R.N. Elliott failed. In my opinion he was brilliant enough to make such observations in the first place. I do not for one moment believe I could have identified and quantified the Wave Principle if I had no prior foundation on which to work.

The ability for me to identify this different structure to impulsive waves could really have only been managed with the benefit of modern calculators and charting software. With a few touches of the keyboard I am able to generate a full range of retracement levels and projections in my spreadsheet. While Elliott did have access to hourly charts, his ability to scrutinize wave relationships was limited due to the fact that he would have had to calculate a range of ratios long hand. Spreadsheets allow these to be available almost instantaneously. All that is needed is to tap in a few highs and lows.

Therefore I prefer to label my findings as a modification only. R.N. Elliott’s work still remains as a remarkable feat of observation and diligence in my own mind.



HISTORY OF FRUSTRATION

It has been 20 years since I began to learn and apply the Elliott Wave Principle to the markets. I bought two books, read them thoroughly, and thought I could begin to predict price movements more effectively. Of course, as anyone will tell you, it’s not as simple as that.

As I utilized R.N. Elliott’s wave structure I became aware that things were not quite right. The same anomalies in the wave structure repeated themselves over and over again. The normal Fibonacci projections which are widely quoted didn't work all that often. Impulsive waves all too often stalled early and missed out a wave.

Finally, through frustration I began to adapt the way in which impulsive wave structures develop and I began to record the common ratios in projections. After a few months it was clear that my adaptations produced far more accurate results in both the projection ratios and the manner in which impulsive wave structures develop.

It was at this point that the numbers of subscribers who kindly wrote to compliment the accuracy of both my forecasts and the daily support and resistance rose considerably. Another quite common comment was how other market analysts seemed to have no idea of what will happen next. As one subscriber wrote:

“I am also extremely happy that I stuck with you. At the time you twisted my rubber arm to continue with the original subscription I had been suffering from a string of advisors, many of whom were well-intentioned but could not unfortunately, for me, chew gum and walk straight at the same time - I mean from an analysis point of view. It was a bit like dining al fresco in the middle of a hurricane…”



THE HARMONIC WAVE STRUCTURE

The result is Harmonic Elliott Wave. Its beauty and power come from harnessing the fractal nature of the structure and the projection targets across the different level of wave degrees that generate harmonious targets.

My book is complete and due to be published late in the first quarter of 2011. In writing this book to describe my findings

The key to this evidence comes from the fact that the Fibonacci or harmonic ratios must be present not only within each wave but within the entire fractal sequence of waves so that the waves of lower degrees must generate projection targets that fit harmoniously into the larger degrees. Each in turn contributes to the next larger degree.

I have provided a great number of actual examples of analysis, the different methods of wave development and substantiated them all through wave relationships so there can be no doubt that the modification to a harmonious structure is valid.

Clearly with a new modified harmonic structure some of the rules that have been used with Elliott’s structure have changed and the methodology of recognizing a correct structure need a shift in perception and application to forecasting.

Over the coming months I shall add some details on this site before launching the new weekly service. Please contact me if you would like to register your interest in this powerful modification.

Why do I think that Elliott made a misjudgment? I have been using this modification for several years and have seen the results it has given. Even in writing my book I have learned more about the structure and the small quirks it generates when comparing to Elliott’s original structure. I do not necessarily view this as a failure by R.N. Elliott as his basic premise was correct. I feel it was more the inability to be able to effectively thoroughly verify the structure due to the limited tools he possessed.

Think of it. In the 1920's every measurement had to be calculated in long hand. Every single one of them, whether weekly, daily or hourly. That implies multiple calculations for every apparent wave movement. For me the simple this was a luxury that Elliott did not possess. From years of observation and an exacting demand for accuracy I fell upon the true structure quite by chance. In fact, without him knowing it was Robert Prechter himself who helped me. It was his “Special Wave A” that triggered my realization...

In abject frustration that I could not identify wave structure through Elliott's definitions I looked at Robert Prechter's Wave A and used it as a Wave 1, then noticed projections began to slot in almost by magic at times. I noted particular relationships in Wave 3 and Wave 5... and Harmonic Elliott Wave was born.



THE REAL WAVE STRUCTURE

Dow theorists will claim victory but even they will need to bow to Elliott's basic 5 wave impulsive move rather than just 3 wave. Yes, it's that simple. Impulsive waves are constructed of 5 waves, 3 in the direction of the underlying direction separated by 2 corrective waves. However, ALL FIVE waves develop in 3-wave structures. I use the standard nomenclature of Wave (i) rather than Wave 1 to identify this fact. Waves (i), (iii) and (v) are constructed of 3 waves.



REALTY CHECK

How am I sure? Because through the use of both Fibonacci and harmonic related ratios the wave structure suddenly comes alive. They develop harmoniously across all wave degrees. When recognized forecasting can produce an accuracy never before achieved.

When the correct wave structure is identified the results can even astound me. Subscribers sometimes think I am psychic. However, it is NOT the Holy Grail. It is NOT a simple process. It DOES require intensive concentration and work. All too often identifying waves can be difficult and the failure to identify Waves (i) and (ii) will cause difficulties in identifying Waves (iii) and Wave (iv)... In many instances they can be identified after the fact which may sound too late but it will provide great accuracy for Wave (v).

However, the Harmonic Wave Structure is more logical and eliminates the confusion generated by extended waves, failed fifths and in many instances the inability to really know where one wave ends and the next begins...



WHAT THIS WEBSITE CAN DO FOR YOU

I cannot replicate the entire book here. However, I shall cover the basics of the modified wave structure, provide some hints and tips and describe how alternation is now interpreted. I shall also cover how not only Fibonacci ratios really work but also a couple of harmonic related ratios which can provide amazing success.

Ian Copsey
 
 


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